New Third Board Think Tank-New Third Board First Investment and Research Platform

[Key points of investment]]:

1. The "13th Five-Year Plan" of the rail transit industry welcomes trillions of market space and continues to be brilliant: Although the semi-annual report of CRRC shows a decline in high-speed rail performance and a rise in subway revenue, with the continuous and vigorous promotion of national intensive policies, China's railway investment in fixed assets remains at a 800 billion high level during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, with EMU procurement exceeding 70 billion. In terms of urban rail, since 2013, local government investment and construction has been actively invested, the industry has entered a period of explosive growth. It is estimated that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the investment in urban rail construction in China will exceed 2.5 trillion, and the subway vehicle market will exceed 300 billion. In terms of rail transit equipment going to sea, China's high-speed rail has quickly opened the market with its 1/2 or even 1/3 cost-effective advantages, winning tens of billions of dollars of overseas orders, and more and larger potential projects are waiting to be developed.

2. The competition pattern in the middle reaches of the industrial chain is stable, there is room for domestic substitution in some fields, and the downstream rail transit information market is in the ascendant: the monopoly competition pattern of the upstream design institute of the rail transit industrial chain has been determined, the structure of the midstream equipment manufacturing field is complex and huge, the market scale of core components is tens of billions, the space is vast, and the burden of localization is mostly monopolized by the units of CNR, some core components, such as brake systems, brake pads and connectors, are mostly monopolized by foreign countries by 50%-80%, leaving room for domestic substitution. There are hundreds of downstream rail transit informatization branches with vast space. The market demand is expected to continue to rise in the future due to the industry's "high speed + heavy load + safety" trend and the need for electrification upgrade.

3. The opportunities for high-quality enterprises in the field of downstream rail transit informatization market and equipment manufacturing to go to sea are worth looking forward to: in the field of rail transit informatization, due to the long qualification certification cycle, the closure of the industry R & D system, and the suddenness of the natural environment, technical strength and System integration capabilities have become the key elements of enterprise competition; in terms of equipment going to sea, four sea modes with Chinese characteristics have been formed, however, China's innate cost-effective advantage and rich project experience have naturally become the primary key for Chinese enterprises to compete at sea.

4. Key recommend in the field of rail transit informatization and equipment manufacturing in the new third board market: 1. Coanda (832188.OC): the absolute leader of China's subway axle counting system; 2. Jiaotong University Sinuo (871196.OC): Holding the core technology in hand, it has become a supplier of core components for train control systems; 3. Taitong Technology (832602.OC), actively establish a good brand; 5, Huagao Century (430039.OC): the domestic train passenger information system leading enterprises, take advantage of the situation to actively go to sea; 6, Xunfeng track (838295.OC): China's subway screen door core components of the main suppliers, actively explore overseas markets.

1. rail transit industry "13th Five-Year Plan" to meet the trillion market space, and then continue to glory.

1, the 13th Five-Year Plan to promote the industry to 4 trillion fixed asset investment landing.

(1) Rail transit industry policy release intensive, unprecedented support.

The rail transit industry includes high-speed rail, general rail and urban rail transit, of which urban rail transit covers subway, intercity, light rail, rail, magnetic levitation, APN and other emerging modes of transportation. Under the dual urgent situation of the continuous slowdown of the domestic economy, the emergence of downward pressure and the increasing urban congestion, the burden of stabilizing the national economy undoubtedly falls on the construction of railways and urban rails. The investment of 0.1 billion yuan in rail transit construction can bring about 0.26 billion yuan of GOP growth, which can be seen in the effect of stable economic growth, which deserves to be a good prescription for the sustained, stable and high-speed growth of the national economy. In the special period that coincides with the country's 13th Five-Year Plan construction, relevant national ministries and commissions have actively issued many favorable policy plans for the rail transit industry, and their support is unprecedentedly strong. The "Draft for Soliciting Comments on the Thirty-Five-Year Development Plan for Railways" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Communications and the National Railway Administration clearly stated that my country's railway fixed asset investment will reach 3.5-3.8 trillion during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and the central and local governments will further increase the budget. Financial support. The "Three-Year Action Plan" also issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Communications pointed out that from 2016 to 2018, it is planned to invest 2 trillion yuan to build, rebuild and expand 20000 kilometers of lines, and 1.6 trillion yuan to build more than 2000 kilometers of urban rail transit. The intensive release of favorable policies and unprecedented support fully demonstrate the country's determination and confidence in vigorously developing rail transit.

(2) Take advantage of the 13th Five-Year Plan policy, railway construction trillion market space to be landed.

After the continuous promotion of national railway construction during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the railway operating mileage of China's rail transit industry has increased from less than 100000km (98000km) in 2012 to 121000km in 2015, breaking through the 120000km mileage mark for the first time, and the annual increase of new railway lines in production is about 5000-6000km. With the continuous upsurge of national railway construction and the intensive superposition of a number of policy plans, according to the 2016 revised "National Railway Medium and Long-term Plan", it is proposed that "by 2020, a number of major national railway landmark projects will be completed and put into operation. The railway network has a mileage of 150000 kilometers, covering more than 80% of large cities; by 2025, the railway network will reach about 175000 kilometers.", During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's new railway lines were put into operation with an average annual increase of 6000 kilometers. Subject to the adverse impact of the "July 23 Yongwen Line High-speed Railway Accident" in 2011, the speed of railway construction in China has slowed down significantly in the following two or three years, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the completion and commissioning of new railway lines in the industry in 2016 and 2017. After improving the high-speed rail signal system and increasing security efforts, the national railway market has gradually warmed up. It is estimated that the mileage of new national railway lines will exceed 6000km by 2018 and 10000km by 2020, and the industry will gradually break out again.